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Big picture: Afghanistan and Australia in sudden-death contest

Much like Afghanistan’s match against England, the political spectre over this clash is hard to put aside. Matches are rare between the two countries, with Australia – like England – taking a human rights stance and pledging to suspend bilateral ties while the Taliban remain in power in Afghanistan.

Cricket Australia publicly demonstrated its commitment to the cause last month by hosting a T20 match featuring an Afghanistan women’s XI in Melbourne, bringing the issue firmly back under the spotlight.

But, underlining the complexities of the issue, Australia do play Afghanistan at ICC events – which has led to some criticism – and this intriguing, budding rivalry will resume in Lahore with much at stake.

But Afghanistan will be eliminated with a loss, while Australia also must win, with a defeat meaning they will have to rely on South Africa being absolutely pummeled by a beleaguered England, who have nothing to play for. A washout will see Australia through to the semi-final.

This is not the first time the two teams have met in a high-stakes contest at a world event. At the 2022 T20 World Cup, Australia emerged with a slim six-run victory in Adelaide that was ultimately not the net-run-rate boost they needed as they crashed out early on home soil.

Glenn Maxwell, of course, changed the course of the 2023 World Cup with a remarkable double-century that still beggars belief. But Afghanistan had some measure of revenge at last year’s T20 World Cup as they overcame a brief Maxwell onslaught with a 21-run victory that sealed their place in the semi-finals.

And, once again, a semi-final spot is up for grabs. The form line is a little hard to read with both teams having tight wins over a wheezing England. Afghanistan bounced back strongly after a disastrous opening against South Africa while Australia’s momentum came to a halt after their clash against South Africa was washed out.

Even though they are considerably weakened – against England they fielded their least experienced attack at an ICC ODI event since 1983 – Australia mustered up their big-game pedigree under pressure to make a statement. Their batting line-up still contains plenty of firepower with Josh Inglis emerging as a genuine star batter across formats. It is little wonder that some believe he’s Australia’s next captain.

A backs-against-the-wall triumph is in play, but Australia will have to firstly get past rising Afghanistan in a game that feels evenly poised. Afghanistan will lean on their spin-heavy attack, but Australia do have numerous players adept against the turning ball – led by Inglis.

Australia’s depleted pace stocks makes that department more equally matched than previous encounters, while an in-form Ibrahim Zadran – coming off a Champions Trophy-best score of 177 – ensures he can go toe-to-toe with his counterparts.

The prospect of more bad weather in Lahore could also play a factor in a clash that is set to be just as compelling as the recent matches between these teams.

Form guide

Afghanistan WLWWW (last five completed matches, most recent first)
Australia WLLLL

While Afghanistan’s slew of quality spinners deservedly attracts plenty of attention, seam bowling allrounder Azmatullah Omarzai stole the show against England with the maiden five-wicket haul of his professional career. He was particularly superb at the death with three wickets when the game was on a knife’s edge. Omarzai’s emergence has helped Afghanistan better balance their attack and they are no longer merely reliant on their spinners for success. He’ll need to back up that performance against a formidable Australia batting order and his canny, skiddy bowling will need to be on point against big-hitting openers Travis Head and Matthew Short. If he can strike early, then Afghanistan will be right in the hunt.

There isn’t much cricket history between the countries, but Glenn Maxwell is probably the first name that springs to mind with this match-up. In the last ODI between the teams, a hobbling Maxwell produced one of the great innings to rescue Australia from the brink at the 2023 World Cup and crush Afghanistan. Maxwell enters this match in great form having put the finishing touches against England after a brilliant end to the BBL season. It will be interesting to see if his presence at the crease spooks Afghanistan, who are adamant they haven’t devoted too much of their plans on him.

Team news: Sean Abbott for Spencer Johnson?

After such a momentous victory, Afghanistan are likely to go unchanged for the third straight game and back their spin strength in subcontinental conditions. The trio of Rashid Khan, Mohammad Nabi and Noor Ahmad will present considerable challenges for the Australians.

Afghanistan (possible): 1 Ibrahim Zadran, 2 Rahmanullah Gurbaz (wk), 3 Sediqullah Atal, 4 Rahmat Shah, 5 Hashmatullah Shahidi (capt), 6 Azmatullah Omarzai, 7 Mohammad Nabi, 8 Gulbadin Naib, 9 Rashid Khan, 10 Noor Ahmad, 11 Fazalhaq Farooqi

Due to the inclement conditions, team lists weren’t even announced for the Australia-South Africa clash. It makes predicting Australia’s line-up somewhat difficult. The team is mostly settled, but they might be tempted to tweak their bowling attack that leaked 351 runs against England. Left-arm quick Spencer Johnson might be in the selection gun after he was overlooked for the death overs against England. But his pace and bounce could be a weapon against Afghanistan’s top order. Australia, who trained indoors on match eve, will also consider bowling allrounder Sean Abbott, who offers a point of difference and strengthens the batting, and legspinner Tanveer Sangha, given Marnus Labuschagne’s part-time legspin played a role against England.

Australia (possible): 1 Matthew Short, 2 Travis Head, 3 Steven Smith (capt), 4 Marnus Labuschagne, 5 Josh Inglis (wk), 6 Alex Carey, 7 Glenn Maxwell, 8 Sean Abbott/Spencer Johnson, 9 Ben Dwarshuis, 10 Nathan Ellis, 11 Adam Zampa

Pitch and conditions

Both teams are now well acquainted with the conditions in Lahore, which has been considerably batting-friendly. While it’s been mostly tough going for pace bowlers, spinners have had an impact despite minimal turn off the surface. After the washout between Australia and South Africa, rain again threatens to spoil the party although the forecast is better from the late afternoon onwards. But with plenty of rain cascading on the ground in the lead-up, drainage could also be an issue.

Stats and trivia

Big Picture: Politics takes back seat in high-stakes match-up

For several febrile weeks at the turn of the year, it was impossible to ignore the political mission-creep of England versus Afghanistan in the Champions Trophy. And yet, it’s not impossible that a cricket match will be allowed to take centre stage, after all, in Lahore on Wednesday. A potentially fascinating one, too.

To deal with the frivolous keep-politics-out-of-sport top line first, this is now a must-win clash for the two winless sides in Group B. Australia’s washout against South Africa in Rawalpindi has changed little in that regard, except that it guarantees that, if either team loses in Lahore, they will now be sunk without a trace, rather than relying on snookers and net run-rates when they play the table-toppers later this week.

And, before we get bogged down in the baggage that this contest has acquired, there’s plenty of recent on-field intrigue to drill down into too. Afghanistan’s historic victory in Delhi at the 2023 World Cup has seen to that. It wasn’t the result that ended the reign of the 2019 champions – the tournament’s drawn-out itinerary meant no swift end to their humiliation – but it did unquestionably show them up as plodding, timid and past their collective sell-by date.

Eighteen months on, similar concerns endure for England, even as they embark on their white-ball Bazball reboot. On the one hand, their five-wicket loss to Australia was a game of fine margins, none more galling than Jofra Archer’s glaring miss in the deep at a pivotal juncture of the chase. On the other hand, they put an apparently hefty 351 on the board yet still got steamrolled with almost three overs to spare. Not even Ben Duckett’s tournament-record 165 could suffice for a side whose reticence runs deep, no matter what positive messaging may have been carried across from Brendon McCullum’s Test dressing-room.

On balance, therefore, would you rather be in England’s shoes – confused as to why your best is still not enough and, in the case of their captain Jos Buttler, vaguely cognisant of the implications of another early tournament exit – or Afghanistan’s – fresh from a shoddy display against South Africa that was so far from the new standards that they set themselves that the only way, surely, is up?

Afghanistan’s 107-run loss in Karachi was studded with shoddy fielding, including a glaring missed run-out, and capped by a batting effort that was sunk inside the first 15 overs. Rahmat Shah showed the requisite mettle with a 92-ball 90, but Rashid Khan’s breezy 18 from 13 balls at No. 9 was their second-best score. After their march to the T20 World Cup semi-finals, not to mention four wins at the 2023 World Cup which secured them their Champions Trophy berth, this squad expects better of themselves these days.

Cue England, then, the perfect opponents for teams in need of a little extra incentive to raise their games.

In truth, the protests about this fixture have dissipated in recent weeks, but that’s not to say there won’t be more discussion as the contest gets underway, or that the underlying issues are no longer worthy of airtime. On the contrary, when the Labour MP Tonia Antoniazzi wrote to the ECB protesting the “sex apartheid” of Afghanistan’s Taliban regime, on whose watch women’s sport has effectively been banned since 2021, she was merely articulating the same unease that many individual boards were already feeling – including both England and Australia, who had previously pledged to suspend bilateral ties while the Taliban remain in power.

That letter had been signed by a cross-party group of 160 British MPs, but the UK prime minister Keir Starmer echoed the ECB’s line, that this is a matter for the ICC as a collective body, not for individual boards. And that, broadly speaking, has been the final word on the matter for now. Certainly it’s a far cry from the situation that Nasser Hussain’s World Cup squad found themselves in back in 2003, when – amid similar political posturing – it was left to the players themselves to debate, and ultimately carry out, a unilateral boycott of Robert Mugabe’s Zimbabwe.

Besides, as Buttler reiterated on the eve of the game, there is still a place for sport as “a source of hope and enjoyment” in tough times … much as was the case on the eve of the 2023 clash, in fact, when Afghanistan’s own aim had been to bring a bit of joy back to their country after a devastating earthquake in Herat had killed several thousand people. The issues may be different, but the underlying truth remains the same. When there are forces beyond your control, whatever they may be, all you can do is produce your best and hope it contributes to the greater good.

Form guide

England: LLLLL (last five completed matches, most recent first)
Afghanistan: LWWWL

In the spotlight: Mark Wood and Rashid Khan

To judge by its early showings, white-ball Bazball is distinctly Route One. Stack the side with the rawest pace imaginable, and let guile and subtlety go hang. It’s a policy that you can imagine being utterly explosive on its good days, but these have been all too infrequent so far in McCullum’s tenure. Mark Wood‘s display against Australia epitomised this. His ferocious powerplay spell featured barely a delivery below 150kph, and landed the key early wicket of Steven Smith. But by the back end of Australia’s 352-run chase, Glenn Maxwell was making room to leg with impunity, safe in the knowledge that any sort of connection would go the distance. Eight of Wood’s ten ODIs since the start of the 2023 World Cup have now come in ICC events. Nine wickets at 58.44 and an economy rate above 6.5 imply that the Aussies aren’t the only team who are ready for what he’s being primed to unleash.

England’s struggles against high-quality spin have been protracted across formats, and few spinners come more highly rated than Afghanistan’s gun leggie Rashid Khan. Last week, he was knocked off the top of the ICC’s ODI rankings by Maheesh Theekshana, largely due to inactivity, and though he went wicketless in Afghanistan’s opening Group B loss to South Africa, he has happy memories of his most recent outing against England: figures of 3 for 37 in that famous World Cup encounter in Delhi included the winning moment itself, a slider to Wood that sealed a 69-run success, their first over England in any format. As Adam Zampa demonstrated in Australia’s high-scoring win in Lahore on Saturday, stump-threatening wristspinners can unlock even the flattest conditions.

Team news

Brydon Carse had been one of the breakthrough bowlers of England’s winters, but his battered toes contributed to an untimely breakdown against Australia, as his seven overs were dispatched at a tick below ten an over. He has now been ruled out of the tournament, with Jamie Overton the likeliest like-for-like replacement – and if Lahore’s conditions remain as true as in the first match, this might even include the impact that his powerful lower-order hitting has often promised, but rarely delivered.

England: 1 Phil Salt, 2 Ben Duckett, 3 Jamie Smith (wk), 4 Joe Root, 5 Harry Brook, 6 Jos Buttler (capt), 7 Liam Livingstone, 8 Jamie Overton, 9 Jofra Archer, 10 Adil Rashid, 11 Mark Wood

Hashmatullah Shahidi, Afghanistan’s captain, hinted that the same XI that tripped up against South Africa would take the field in Lahore – unsurprising in light of his pointed but uncontroversial observation that “the England team struggles a bit against spinners”. In Rashid, Mohammad Nabi and Noor Ahmad, they will have to negotiate 30 overs of the finest, and most varied, slow bowlers in subcontinental conditions, although they will at least be spared a reunion with their chief destroyer at the World Cup, Mujeeb Ur Rahman, who has been managing injury in recent months and is not currently involved in the 50-over format.

Afghanistan: (possible) 1 Ibrahim Zadran, 2 Rahmanullah Gurbaz (wk), 3 Sediqullah Atal, 4 Rahmat Shah, 5 Hashmatullah Shahidi (capt), 6 Azmatullah Omarzai, 7 Mohammad Nabi, 8 Gulbadin Naib, 9 Rashid Khan, 10 Noor Ahmad, 11 Fazalhaq Farooqi

Pitch and conditions

England got a clear idea of Lahore’s run-laden conditions in their tournament opener, and more of the same is in prospect on a pristine new surface. The weather, however, could be decidedly cooler. There’s been rain around on the eve of the contest, and while it is not expected to be a factor during the match, the cloud cover could remain in situ … a possible boon for England’s pace-dominant attack.

Stats and trivia

England have lost five ODIs in a row, their joint-worst run since losing six in a row in their home ODI series against Australia in 2009. Auspiciously, they followed that performance with an improbable semi-final place, weeks later, in the Champions Trophy in South Africa. (Although they did then get crushed by the eventual champions, Australia, once more…)

Tag: Afghanistan

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